最新GPM遥感数据在淮河和海河流域的误差分析          下载免费PDF全文

庆丹丹  宋凡  宁少尉  金菊良  高成 《水文》2018,38(5):52-58

为了加深对最新GPM卫星降水产品在具体流域的误差特性的了解,利用中国日降水分析产品(CPAP),选取相关系数(CC)、平均误差(ME)、探测率(POD)、错报率(FAR)以及6个极端降雨指标评估2014年4月至2016年3月期间IMERG卫星降水产品和GSMap-Gauge卫星降水产品在淮河、海河流域的误差特性及性能表现。结果表明:(1)两种卫星降水产品的总误差的空间分布完全不同,以高估为主要表现。(2)产品在百分位指标(RR99p及RR95p)和绝对阈值指标(R20及R20TOT)的表现非常好,相关系数超过0.84。对于持续时间指标(CWD及CDD),表现则均不理想,但GSMap-Gauge产品仍优于IMERG产品。(3)不论是日、月尺度下的比较,还是在探测率及错报率上,GSMap-Gauge产品性能表现总是更优。月降雨量估测结果的准确性明显高于日降雨量估测结果。  相似文献   

地区场选样洪水计算在西部流域应用分析          下载免费PDF全文

王进  赵映东  邓居礼  吕明侠 《水文》2018,38(5):59-62

为采用地区场选样洪水计算方法分析研究建立了西部祖厉河流域设计洪水计算经验公式,设计计算成果经与皮尔逊三型频率曲线设计计算成果比较分析,计算成果精度较高。由此确定了该流域设计洪水计算相关成果图及查算表,为该流域设计洪水计算提供技术支撑。  相似文献   

模糊物元理论在干旱分析中的应用研究          下载免费PDF全文

冯星  孙东永  胡维登  张彤  郭建青 《水文》2018,38(6):18-23

干旱的评价指标具有多样性,各种指标在优劣程度上是渐变的,具有模糊性,不同的干旱指标对干旱的分析会存在一定的差异性。利用渭河流域1960～2010年近50a的日气候资料,通过分析计算选取标准降水指数、综合干旱指数和降水距平百分率并通过模糊物元理论将这三种干旱评价指标结合起来构建一种新的评价方法并与已发生的干旱进行分析对比。结果显示:模糊物元理论可以很好的将多种干旱指标结合起来从而减小不同指标分析所存在的差异性;且与单独一干旱指标所分析的干旱趋势没有出现较大的偏差。可以将多种分析方法结合起来更好的揭示干旱的变化规律,定量评价流域内的干旱变化情况,对抗旱减灾工作有重要的科学意义。  相似文献   

长江中下游宣城水东地区早白垩世酸性火山岩年代学、地球化学及岩石成因     

王存智  黄志忠  赵希林  褚平利  黄文成  宋世明  陈志洪 《岩石矿物学杂志》2018,37(5):697-715

位于长江中下游的宣城水东地区发育一套酸性火山岩,主要由流纹质角砾岩、流纹岩和珍珠岩组成。本文对该套火山岩进行了详细的锆石U-Pb年代学、主量元素、微量元素以及Nd-Hf同位素研究。LA-ICP MS锆石U-Pb定年结果显示3种岩性的火山岩年龄分别为133.2±0.8、133.4±0.8和131.5±0.9 Ma。主量元素组成上,这套酸性火山岩具高硅(72.51%~81.79%)、富钾(K_2O/Na_2O=2.04~14.93,平均6.72)、贫钙镁(Ca O=0.19%~1.57%,Mg O=0.06%~0.29%)的特征,属于弱过铝质(A/CNK=1.02~1.24)的高钾钙碱性-钾玄岩系列岩石。微量元素方面,轻重稀土元素分馏明显[(La/Yb)_N=5.43~9.17],具明显的负铕异常(Eu/Eu~*=0.44~0.60),富集大离子亲石元素(LILE)Rb、Th、K和Pb等,亏损Ba、Sr、Nb、P和Ti等元素,表现出壳源的特征。全岩Sr-Nd和锆石Hf同位素组成变化范围相对较小,(~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr)_i为0.707 3~0.708 8,εNd(t)值为-7.05~-5.56,εHf(t)为-8.6~-1.3。结合区域地质研究成果,认为宣城水东地区酸性火山岩可能是在约135 Ma古太平洋板块俯冲作用之后的伸展-拉伸环境下,由新元古代早期新生地壳重熔而成。  相似文献   

黄河口清水沟河道的冲淤过程与模拟          下载免费PDF全文

郑珊  吴保生  周云金  王开荣  韩沙沙 《水科学进展》2018,29(3):322-330

为揭示黄河口清水沟河道长时段的冲淤演变规律并建立其冲淤计算方法,分析了清水沟1976—2015年的时空冲淤演变过程,采用河床演变的滞后响应模型,考虑河口来水来沙及河道延伸与蚀退的影响,建立了清水沟累计冲淤量的计算方法。结果表明:1976—1980年改道初期清水沟改道点上游先冲后淤,改道点下游淤滩塑槽,淤积量随着下游河道展宽而增加,1980年后改道点上、下游河道冲淤过程趋于一致;受水沙条件等因素影响,1980—1986年清水沟主槽冲刷展宽,之后主槽淤积萎缩;1996年清八改汊和2002年小浪底水库"调水调沙"原型试验以来,河道转淤为冲,2002年后河道冲刷速率随时间指数衰减;河床演变的滞后响应模型可计算清水沟长时段的冲淤过程,该方法可为预测未来清水沟冲淤演变趋势提供科学参考。  相似文献   

Water Cycle Analysis of Social and Economic System in Tarim River Basin     

Zhong Ma  Shoujuan Su  Aihua Long  Xiaoxia Zhang 《地球科学进展》2018,33(8):833-841

Water cycle includes natural water circulation and social economic system water cycle. The concept of virtual water provides a new method and means for studying social water circulation. This paper is based on the theory of water circulation in social and economic system, using input-output analysis method quantitatively describes the Tarim River basin of social water cycle paths and analysis of water resources management in Tarim River basin sustainable development process of the key issues. The results show that the main sectors of virtual water export in the Tarim River Basin are agriculture, petroleum, natural gas and food industry. Agricultural water accounts for more than 98% of total water consumption, most of which is transferred to the food and textile industries, and the food industry export water from the agricultural sector. Shandong Province is the largest virtual water transport area in the Tarim River Basin. The main sector of virtual water input in the Tarim River Basin is the metallurgical industry. Finally, in view of the problems arising from the inter-industrial and inter-regional social water circulation in the Tarim River basin, the paper puts forward the ways and strategies of regulating agricultural and industrial water use in the Tarim River Basin.  相似文献   

A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer     

Qiuming Yang 《地球科学进展》2018,33(4):385-395

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.  相似文献   

江苏灌河入海口附近重金属元素环境地球化学质量分析     

夏同法  梁胜跃  徐明钻 《江苏地质》2018,42(4):641-650

以往对灌河口附近海域进行地球化学调查发现,海底沉积物及海水质量总体良好,但局部沉积物中Cr含量高于一类标准,Cu、As、Pb、Hg等其他重金属元素含量也明显高于其他地区,个别重金属元素已接近一类标准最高限,存在潜在生态风险。为进一步了解其与人类活动是否有关,对灌河靠近入海口40 km长的河水进行了地球化学调查,发现灌河河水中Hg、Cu、Pb等重金属元素存在一定程度的超标现象。结合其他证据认为,人类活动不仅对灌河下游河水质量产生了负面影响,还对入海口附近的海域环境质量产生了潜在威胁。借鉴内梅罗综合指数评价思路对灌河下游及入海口的重金属元素环境质量进行评价,并对如何降低、消除生态风险提出了若干建议。  相似文献   

Study of late-Mesozoic magmatic rocks and their related copper-gold-polymetallic deposits in the Guichi ore-cluster district,Lower Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt,East China     

Huangling Gu  Zhangxing Nie  Jianghong Deng  Liuan Duan  Qing Hu 《International Geology Review》2018,60(11-14):1404-1434

ABSTRACT

The Guichi ore-cluster district in the Lower Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt hosts extensive Cu–Au–Mo polymetallic deposits including the Tongshan Cu–Mo, Paodaoling Au, Matou Cu–Mo, Anzishan Cu–Mo, Guilinzheng Mo and Zhaceqiao Au deposits, mostly associated with the late Mesozoic magmatic rocks, which has been drawn to attention of study and exploration. However, the metallogenic relationship between magmatic rocks and the Cu–Au-polymetallic deposits is not well constrained. In this study, we report new zircon U–Pb ages, Hf isotopic, and geochemical data for the ore-bearing intrusions of Guichi region. LA-ICP-MS U–Pb ages for the Anzishan quartz diorite porphyrite is 143.9 ± 1.0 Ma. Integrated with previous geochronological data, these late Mesozoic magmatic rocks can be subdivided into two stages of magmatic activities. The first stage (150–132 Ma) is characterized by high-K calc-alkaline intrusions closely associated with Cu–Au polymetallic ore deposits. Whereas, the second stage (130–125 Ma) produced granites and syenites and is mainly characterized by shoshonite series that are related to Mo–Cu mineralization. The first stage of magmatic rocks is considered to be formed by partial melting of subducted Palaeo-Pacific Plate, assimilated with Yangtze lower crust and remelting Meso-Neoproterozoic crust/sediments. The second stage of magmatism is originated from partial melting of Mesoproterozoic-Neoproterozoic crust, mixed with juvenile crustal materials. The depression cross to the uplift zone of the Jiangnan Ancient Continent forms a gradual transition relation, and the hydrothermal mineralization composite with two stages have certain characteristics along the regional fault (Gaotan Fault). Guichi region results from two episodes of magmatism probably related to tectonic transition from subduction of Palaeo-Pacific Plate to back-arc extensional setting between 150 and 125 Ma, which lead to the Mesozoic large-scale polymetallic mineralization events in southeast China.  相似文献   

河西走廊疏勒河流域水资源管理问题分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄珊  冯起  齐敬辉  陆志翔  龚志宏 《冰川冻土》2018,40(4):846-852

从水资源管理体制、配置程序、市场化管理等方面探讨了河西走廊疏勒河流域水资源管理及存在的问题。目前流域已建成较健全的用水者协会体系,水价和水权在不断调整以适应水资源管理的需求。其管理存在以下问题：受地方行政、企业等多方权力博弈的影响,地表水和地下水处于双线管理状态,未能实现流域水资源的全面统一管理;用水者协会的职能未得到充分发挥,公众参与水资源管理不积极;流域内水价、水权制度不完善。建议如下：应在甘肃省水利厅和酒泉市政府之间形成协调机制,以协调各相关方的权益,完善流域管理局和地方政府统一协调的水资源管理体系,实现流域水资源的集成管理;加强流域机构立法,实现流域水资源的统一管理与调配;将协会的职责和义务融入到村委会的职务中,并完善水价制度,建立水权交易市场,以调动公众的自我管理和实现水资源的高效利用。  相似文献